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September 6, 2008

Hanna/Ike, 11am Sunday Update

Posted: 12:22 PM ET
Here's the 11am Sunday update, based on the National Hurricane Center's forecast and info from CNN's meteorologists;
IKE:  Category Four, major storm, Max Sustained Winds 135 MPH, forward speed 13 mph.  Ike is tearing through the Turks and Caicos and extreme southern Bahamas, with some potentially catastrophic collateral damage to Haiti from heavy rain, floods, and mudslides.

Projected track of Hurricane Ike as of 11am ET Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Projected track of Hurricane Ike as of 11am ET Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

 
The storm is now expected to track the length of Cuba, including mountainous areas, that could really deflate the storm.  But after exiting Cuba, Ike will re-intensify, and is expected to recover to Cat Three strength.  All of the forecast models are within about fifty miles of each other for Ike's path across Cuba.
 
The lower Florida Keys could see some impact from the storm on Tuesday, but are pretty much out of danger from a direct hit.  The forecast models are a bit scattered on an ultimate US landfall, ranging from Galveston Bay/Houston to the west and Mobile Bay to the east.  Earliest possible landfall, if the storm takes the shortest path and stays east, would be Thursday.   Friday or Saturday is more likely, but as always, this is way too far out to make more than a guess for Ike's destination, arrival time, and intensity at landfall.

Hanna is offshore, likely to impact Nova Scotia and Newfoundland today, and tracking to cross the ocean and possibly cause a bit of grief in Scotland/Northern Europe later this week, but its US impacts are done.
 
Josephine is off the maps completely, now a mid-Atlantic disturbance posing no threat to land.

 

 

Peter Dykstra   Esecutive Producer, CNN Science, Tech, & Weather

Filed under: environment • Flooding • hurricanes • meteorology • Oceans • Severe weather • Weather


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Franko   September 6th, 2008 3:09 pm ET

Hanna:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al08/loop_5W.shtml
Ike
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml
Josephine
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al10/loop_5W.shtml


Franko   September 6th, 2008 3:59 pm ET

The primary energy source is the hot ocean water. Good as NOAA charts are, we need temperature and depth contours. One, two, three standard deviation path projection expected errors. The 100 mile one day projection error, how useful, what does it mean ?


Joe Graham   September 6th, 2008 5:22 pm ET

Just moved to the keys yesterday with my dad an brother and they dont want to leave but im pretty sure im driving my dads truck north! lol


Russell   September 6th, 2008 7:02 pm ET

The forecasters are wrong about hurricane Ike's projected path and intensity.

Hurricane Ike will go down in history as one of the worst level 4 hurricanes to make landfall. It will slow as it enters the gulf, building in strength to a category 4 once again, briefly even reaching level 5 before downgrading to 4 again prior to making landfall just east of the Texas/Louisiana state line. The storm surge is going to challenge and overcome the corp of engineers dike at New Orleans as well as it passes near the coastline before continuing on toward its final destination.

Underestimation of this storm will trap hundreds at the east Texas and western Louisiana coastline along with the immediately adjacent inland communities. This is exactly the type of deceptive storm characteristics that will cause delays or speculation concerning the need to evacuate.

Make no mistake, this storm is going to be a hurricane of immense strength and destruction, with heavy damage and casualties extending as much as 170 miles inland and initial sustained winds topping155mph.

Forecasters need to reconsider this storm's ability to strengthen and alter it's projected course and speed based upon impending weather patterns proceeding from the west. They need to take a very serious look at the changes in the weather patterns that will exist on Wednesday, September 10th and make reassessment.

Thanks Russell - I don't mean to sound skeptical, but I'd love to know what you're basing this on. Feel free to respond. If there's something you're seeing meteorologically that we're not, please let us know. PD


Robert   September 6th, 2008 7:57 pm ET

Reading all these comments I cant help but notice all the people complaining that Chrome does not have many options or customizations, etc..... I guess that people tend to forget that this is the BETA. I'm sure Google has more plans for Chrome in its finished product....


S Callahan   September 6th, 2008 9:10 pm ET

I think Russell is right about it's intensity......
It's my hope people take this seriously...knowing quite a few people living in S. Florida the word is out that this is expected to be serious and they are preparing...but I think anything South, east or west, should be ready......
God have mercy on Haiti and Cuba as well.
Looking a few days back , I wondered then if it was headed to Georgia......so far, maybe not.


mike   September 6th, 2008 9:58 pm ET

Russell,
You do realize that the storm’s intensity will drop a tremendous amount after crossing the island of Cuba like it is expected. Why? Mountains. Mountains kill storms, sure it will probable enter the gulf but it shouldn’t get higher than a 3 and if last week is any indication it will more than likely be a 2.
As for your cheap shot at New Orleans’ levees. You do realize that they would not break unless the city was directly hit, the storm simply moving through the gulf would not affect Louisiana’s levees. They don’t break all the time you know, in fact it’s a rare occasion.
Not every storm is the end of the world, if everyone was as pessimistic as you we’d just live in underground bunkers.


Franko   September 6th, 2008 9:59 pm ET

Gustav passed fast, did not very cool the Gulf Bathtub.
Depth of ocean warm water, upper air streams, tide subharmonic speed effect ?
Apparently, direction more accurately, than category, predicted.
CNN please plant a spy in NOAA, Public safety requires more accuracy.

NOAA quit goofing with climate predicting by aerosols. Hurricane job #1


Dave in Ft. Lauderdale, FL   September 7th, 2008 12:22 am ET

Thanks for the bit of background on CNN's reporting, DP.

I do have a suggestion that your news directors, among others, won't like: Less hotdogging in hurricane force winds.

I know it's great visual entertainment to see a reporter buffeted by wind and rain...perhaps hit by flying debris (Anderson Cooper being the latest near-target dude) or thrown down the street. The only thing it proves to the grownups among your viewers is disregard for the storm's strength and for personal safety for the sake of "dramatic" footage you can perhaps post on YouTube.

Particularly after a series of injuries, most Miami stations, for example, actively discourage their reporters from showing off for the camera. That's responsible reporting. Hotdogging isn't.


Filip   September 7th, 2008 6:43 am ET

It seems Russel might be right – Ike is already category 4, and the article hasn't been updated.


Stephen   September 7th, 2008 12:49 pm ET

Mr. Dave,

What? Irresponsible reporting, for actually being at the scene of the report? What irony. You probably thought the Bigfoot reporting was a great public service.


Franko   September 7th, 2008 1:14 pm ET

Not just GirlieMen reporting. Do a Rambo, search NOAA for the real meaning of the prediction error cones. NOAA, just a group of ice cream cone slurpers ? Modeling by the temperature of their tongue ? At least golfers test the wind by dropping grass.


SJM   September 7th, 2008 2:07 pm ET

Having lived in the direct path of Frances, Jeanne and Wilma, West Palm Beach Florida. Let me say it isn't just the intensity of the storm but also how long it lingers over any area. Frances, while not as intense as Jeanne or Wilma did as much damage as the other storms since it lingered in our area for several HOURS longer than a hurricane normally would. Frances brought down the electrical lines that normally would have survived a storm of it's strength, simply by sticking around longer.

We didn't have the flooding that New Orleans got from Katrina and Rita, but we were without power for weeks, and also had to removed huge numbers of trees that went down during the storms. Tankfully my home at the time wasn't damaged, but we had numerous buldings along the coast that were filled with sand that became unlivable for -years- following the storms.

NOAA stopped doing error cones when the Hurricanes started hitting areas that weren't in the primary area of prediction and the areas had failed to take necessary precautions simply because they felt that they were outside the primary path. You can't always predict what nature will do. While NOAA does the best it can given what it understands of the forces at work with Hurricanes, there is still a lot we don't understand about what will steer or chance the intensity of a storm.

Don't like not knowing where a storm will strike? Move to an area that doesn't get Hirricanes like Kansas.


S Callahan   September 7th, 2008 3:00 pm ET

P.D...any chance this sci tech blog can get some info on the super H collider.?.rumor all over the internets that mini black holes were created...any truth to this? Isn't that news, along with Dr. Lyn Evans experiment on Wed. with the 17 mile atom smasher? Info please, if you or someone at CNN has it.


Franko   September 7th, 2008 4:22 pm ET

The prediction programs are old. Give the incoming data to all who request it.
A child with a One Laptop per Child laptop. can predict better ?

Climate model change priesthood has a chapter in NOAA, NASA Hansen style ?


Stephen Courton   September 8th, 2008 3:01 am ET

The long range models seem to be trending to a hit on the Texas coast on the weekend. Main issue is strength. The storm will be different after traveling over cuba for up to 36 hours. A new eye will need to reform and the structure and size of the new eye will determine if it can take advantage of favorable intensification conditions through the mid gulf. Conditions may not favor intensification near the texas coast.


David Edison Novotny   September 8th, 2008 9:09 am ET

Instead of Spending Billions on Atom Colliding Machines that tantalize the FEW, why not solve the problems facing the current WORLD. We are messing with Mother Earth in ways that will bring an end to us all! We need to reverse or stop the greed that is propelling us towards certain End! Do we want more storms that get larger and larger? The greedy few will leave behind an uninhabitable planet or just particle of space dust.

It seems that we are losing ground not progressing.

David Edison


S Callahan   September 8th, 2008 6:37 pm ET

Impressive name Dave, any relation?
What concerns me is the public knowledge that this will open deminsions...being a woman of faith we know the scriputres speak of deminsions so we know they exisit..but my concern is of course like Columbus..curious...but hesistent...hopefully the outcome is something good.

The better part of me though says sometimes one has to say it is just not 'right' to do regardless of ones ability to do it.


Franko   September 9th, 2008 1:00 am ET

"why not solve the problems facing the current WORLD."
Define the problems, blink of an eye, everyone adds theirs, second later, not currant, add to the list. The list explodes, so fast, more hard drives needed, to store requests. Power grids overload, nuclear reactors melt down. Back to EcoSustainableHumanDeath. All problems solved. Such is creatively designed Nirvana ?

Problems are there, absolutely necessary, to trip and break the neck of the unfit Hurdle Jumper. I want to set the hurdle, raise or lower to eliminate those I do not like. Absolutely intelligent am I. No one left, but I ?


kim   September 9th, 2008 12:38 pm ET

In response to the guy Russell, unless you can see things others cannot no one can predict mother nature the way you have in your article. I live in Southeast Texas 50 miles from the TX/LA border. We do not need people jumping the gun saying that there will be casualties.


Patrick   September 9th, 2008 7:42 pm ET

How to end this madness. GO here:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/cyclonebuster/comment.html?entrynum=113&tstamp=200806


Pat   September 9th, 2008 9:55 pm ET

Alot of hungry people in the world, alot of people in desparate need of assistance. What a waste of resourses,I wonder which worldwide lobbiest committee pushed this one through?


Brian, Detroit, MI   September 9th, 2008 11:12 pm ET

Hopefully these storms will finally wash New Orleans out to sea. Whose stupid idea was it to build a city on the ocean, below sea level??? Apparently that city was built a long time ago. I think it is time we just let it go.

What is it good for anymore? Girls gone wild videos? A city where criminals get sent by their families to avoid law enforcement. New Orleans, Atlanta, Detroit, Washington D.C., I know there are many others, but let us just start with these. All of these criminal hangouts need to be destroyed, nuclear device, whatever. They are cesspools that need to be buried. And that is all I have to say about that.


Franko   September 10th, 2008 1:57 am ET

To: Patrick
Thanks for your very good link.
King Canute had Faith, but not the technology


S Callahan   September 10th, 2008 7:53 pm ET

Russell, we can all shove a sock in our mouths because it looks like you are right ....as of today 9/10 pm Ike is heading for the Louisanna /Texan border as a cat 4.....how did you know? share info......


Patrick   September 11th, 2008 9:15 pm ET

Franko September 10th, 2008 1:57 am ET

To: Patrick
Thanks for your very good link.
King Canute had Faith, but not the technology

I think technology has caught up to King Canute these days!


Rudi Merom   September 23rd, 2008 2:02 pm ET

I am shocked that the science community in large believe that they can unveil the secrets of creation….they barley know if we have a 10th planet or not, a lot of scientist are so arrogant that they can confuse the regular human being with there big ego……we as human have to lower our self a little and not sale our stupidity to the general public….most of the people believe what it is written in the newspaper or shown on TV….but if they would look in the sky and see how big is the universe they would understand that a lot of science “facts” are only imagination that some scientists agree on….it remind me 30 years ago when I spoke with people about computers and when I said “hard drive” or “memory “ they thought that I am a genus …and they would believe me of anything that I would say about computers….please use your own mind and don’t let any human being let you believe that they can understand “how was the universe created” its to arrogant….and 100% there are some good scientist on our planet….if you will read about Albert Einstein you would see how modest this man was….and he was the greatest scientist ever….

Thanks
Rudi


Franko   September 24th, 2008 3:45 pm ET

"I am shocked that the science community in large believe that they can unveil the secrets of creation…"

Just advertising hype, joke, not real FaithScienceZombie belief.
Science questions, experiments, theorizes, not faith closed mindless predictions


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