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July 7, 2008

Storm to the east of us, fires to the west...

Posted: 11:26 AM ET

It looks like an interesting weather week shaping up. Bertha has become the second Atlantic storm and first hurricane of the season (lest we've forgotten, Tropical Storm Arthur dumped a load of rain on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula during the last week in May).

(NOAA Map)  Bertha\'s expected track across the Atlantic, as of Monday morning

(NOAA Map) Bertha\

Right now, Bertha is a Category One storm, with winds in the high 70's MPH range. The long-term track - which is extremely subject to change - has the storm staying away from the mainland U.S. coast, but possibly threatening Bermuda by the weekend. (Monday Evening Update: At 5pm ET, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Bertha to a Category Three hurricane.   The long-term track still keeps the storm out to sea, with a possible risk to Bermuda).  PD

Out west, California continues to fulfill the predictions for a bad fire season, with both coastal and inland fires blackening thousands of acres and filling the skies in the San Francisco Bay Area and Reno, Nevada, with smoke. Hot temperatures will continue all week, so the threat's not going away anytime soon, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

Peter Dykstra Executive Producer CNN Science, Tech & Weather

Filed under: climate change • environment • hurricanes • Severe weather • Weather

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Franko   July 7th, 2008 12:44 pm ET

A global warming alarmists publicity stunt,
To prove that the Earth is not cooling.

S Callahan   July 7th, 2008 2:21 pm ET

Today, I see the Gov. of California has instituted emergency plans to deal with the pending heat wave, though I would surmise the greater harm is the low level many already suffer asthma in that area...... so sad what is happening in cousin 's former home was located in a glorious area that burned..Though i wouldn't trade the beauty of the East Coast for the was beautiful land (and with nature will return that way.... eventually).

I have been watching the news on the recent winds I understand that it's off the coast of Africa possibly heading to the East Coast with much greater strength....guess it should be a state of watch and prepare.

Ari   July 7th, 2008 3:22 pm ET

Publicity stunt? Willful ignorance and the desire to ostrich oneself from bad news is an amazing trait in humanity. So is criticizing those with vision.

Larisa   July 7th, 2008 4:46 pm ET

Does anyone have any sites with Long Range (3 weeks) Hurricane Info? I'm planning a trip tp Cuba end of July but am hesitant to book due to hurricane probabiliy, pls advise.

Dan   July 7th, 2008 5:27 pm ET

Bertha to hit Bermuda
Scientists can't be sure if the season's first hurricane will avoid the U.S. mainland

When I saw the above link on the main CNN page, I clicked on it for sure. The headline implies that Bertha will hit Bermuda for sure, but all the supporting information suggests that a direct hit is only a possibility at this time, and the track of the storm could change between now and the end of the week.

Perhaps the choice of misleading headline wording is a deliberate attempt to lure readers of the site to click on the link. I feel that the wording is irresponsible and helps create unnecessary frenzy, confusion, and dismay for the people in the area that might be affected.

grammarneeded   July 7th, 2008 6:32 pm ET

I'm pretty sure that 'extremely subject to change' violates several rules of grammar. At least fix it to read 'subject to extreme change' or, better yet, plain old 'subject to change'. What you have now is just wrong!

nelleellen   July 7th, 2008 7:57 pm ET

Yikes! I lived in Bermuda in the early seventies as a young teen and lived through Hurricane Ginger circling...and circling...and circling. We lived about 12 feet above the high tide line. Folks could get pretty wet if it intensifies to a Cat 3 as the meteorologists are predicting.

pdykstra   July 7th, 2008 9:50 pm ET

From the Blogger:

To Larisa: Hurricane track projections, even the 5-day ones now offered by the Natl. Hurricane Center, are extremely speculative. Three weeks' reliable advance notice is out of the question.
One fun site that offers "weather forensics" information - the typical, average weather on a given day, or a given month, for a given place, is Weather Underground
It's a great site. Hope you have a good trip, sorry I can't suggest a crystal ball, though.

To Dan:
You're right, no one's said that Bertha's certain to hit Bermuda. I'll have a talk with the headline writers. Thanks.

To Grammarneeded I plead no contest. If you say my grammar is bad, in a blog written on the fly, I'm sure you're right. But I'll make you a deal: I'll be more careful, if you provide some evidence that you actually read and comprehended what I'm referring to, instead of handing me my English grade. I'll even clean up the dangling preposition in the previous sentence, but only if you agree to the deal.
To Franko: We love ya! You are hereby selected to the SciTech Blog All Star Team of commenters. Your responses are always welcomed. But in this case, give it a rest! There isn't a word, or muted reference, or a hint, about global warming in this post, only in your emphatic response something that isn't there.

Thanks to all!
Peter Dykstra

Franko   July 8th, 2008 12:34 am ET

You are correct.
Two, temporary, seasonal, localized events
do not long term globalized average make.

Off-topic, inventive grammar, poetic license, exaggeration, just artistic flair
Blog is not news, just a personal reaction.

Brad K.   July 8th, 2008 1:05 am ET

Re: Peter's claim that there is no word about global warming in this post. Technically true, because the reference to "climate change" is in the "Filed under:" section. I'm certainly not supporting Franko's sentiment, I'm just observing.

Carla Hogenkamp   July 8th, 2008 5:10 am ET

Katrina, Bertha...Please, explain to me why hurricanes and so forth always get a girls name. Considering that those hurricanes can develop into very desastrous tornado's, would it not be more appropriate always to give each of them a man's name, because men belong to the more belligerent and aggresive sex ?

Alf,Bermuda   July 8th, 2008 7:21 am ET

Your "headline writers" need to be a little more careful. Headlines like "Bertha to hit Bermuda" can have a devistating effect on the economy of firstly on Bermuda as a tourist destination, and there is a trickle down effect as far as airlines and other modes of transportation is concerned

Dan   July 8th, 2008 10:57 am ET

After checking again today, I'm happy that the misleading headline no longer seems to appear on the main CNN website.

Headlines notwithstanding, it's comforting to see that the projected path for Bertha later this week is taking a turn to the east of Bermuda. I have family who live there, and I hope they and all the other people there don't have to go through the trauma experienced during Hurricane Fabian a few years ago

Katherine   July 8th, 2008 1:06 pm ET

Hurricanes and tropical storms DO get male names! Remember a little ditty called Andrew? Or Floyd? Dennis? Hugo?

Storms were named after women exlcusively for a number of years. At some point (1970s?) the list of names for storms was changed so that the names alternate in gender. The list for each year also alternates with whether the first storm (an "A" name) is a male or female name.

You are also incorrect about "hurricanes can develop into very desastrous tornado’s." While a hurricane making landfall can spawn tornados, the hurricane itself does not turn into a tornado. Furthermore, the tornados spawned by hurricanes are, ironically, typically less powerful than those spawned by supercell thunderstorms (such as those in the midwest in the spring).

SLOweather   July 8th, 2008 10:19 pm ET

"Out west, California continues to fulfill the predictions for a bad fire season..."

The Boy Who Cried Wolf Syndrome... We live in the midst of the current fires (Gap to the south, Piute to the east, Basin and Gallery to the north, Highway 1 runs through here). Every year, local CalFire declares that it could be "the worst fire season ever". If it was a dry winter, it's because it was dry. If it was a wet winter, it's because there's lots of grass. If they declare it long enough, finally, it'll come true. But it loses its impact after a while.

Franko   July 9th, 2008 7:19 am ET

A Buddhist Monk is chased over the cliff by a tiger, hanging on to a bush. The bush is slowly weakening and the roots are giving way. The Monk notices a raspberry and eats it.

In our case, enlightenment has more options.
Scary headlines to focus attention, Plan ahead and be prepared.

Canada has water to irrigate USA,
Ocean hot spots around Cuba are the energy source for hurricanes.
Big international geological engineering, climate modifying, possibilities exist.

s callahan   July 10th, 2008 12:47 am ET

Peter you are so kind (seriously) . Franko i actually see your humor and or poetry reflected in some of your previous blogs .......and have enjoyed a few.

For the Science blog authors, I really enjoy the various topics you put out there...I learn a little , sometimes alot, from each. Thanks.

Franko   July 10th, 2008 1:57 am ET

Actually, sometimes, I laugh at my own joke.
We act of fear, of rejection, of losing the projected reward, confining.

Reminds me of a joyful and happy street musician. Bypassers were indignant, while he was strumming his guitar. A TV reporter asked a question, presuming the musician was wasting his life. Happily, he replied; "We are all going to die". Deep Buddhist like insight, enjoying the life, even if limited ?

Jim Spaulding   July 10th, 2008 4:45 pm ET

Ari, you must be from San shows.

joe   July 10th, 2008 6:15 pm ET

Thank God that someone has enought sense to come up with some ideas to help this energy crisis. The Bush administration got us into this mess and are happy about it. No chance of them looking for a solution.

joe   July 10th, 2008 6:16 pm ET

Thank God that someone has enoughsense to come up with some ideas to help this energy crisis. The Bush administration got us into this mess and are happy about it. No chance of them looking for a solution.

Franko   July 10th, 2008 11:13 pm ET

Quiet acceptance of being eaten by the tiger, or food for the vultures ?

Neither, this Monk was the Popeye of Buddhism. He practiced Kung Fu chopsticks. The raspberry gave him the peak energy. Aiming the chopstick at the tiger, pierced the roof of it's mouth. The end result, Chop Suey Tiger Sushi.

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