SciTechBlog   « Back to Blog Main
August 5, 2008

Hurricane forecasters: Who gets it right?

Posted: 11:58 AM ET

Tropical Storm Edouard came ashore this morning, a less-than-impressive storm that hopefully won't cause much more than inconvenience to the Texas Gulf Coast.

Also this morning, William Gray and Phil Klotzbach, the Colorado State University hurricane forecasters, issued their updated prediction on how this year's Atlantic hurricane season will turn out, raising their earlier estimates to a total of 17 named storms.

Hurricane paths from the record-setting 2004 season.

ALL OVER THE MAP: Hurricane paths from the 2004 season.

<

Both the Colorado State team and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issue annual predictions, and update them throughout the season. Let's take a look at how good a job they've done over the years. The numbers we're using here are the predictions issued each spring before the season gets underway. The teams predict how many tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes they expect:

In 2007, Dr. Gray predicted 17 named storms, NOAA called for 13 to 17. The actual number was 15. Gray said 9 of those storms would become hurricanes last year; NOAA said 7 to 10. We got 6.
Gray said there would be 5 major hurricanes of Category Three or higher; NOAA predicted 3 to 5. We got 2.

Both were fairly close with their 2007 forecasts. There were a few years - notably the monstrous 2005 season - when they weren't close at all. Here are the previous six years' predictions, and realities:

2006: Gray: 17 named storms; 9 hurricanes; 5 major hurricanes
NOAA: 13 to 16 named storms; 8 to 10 hurricanes; 4 to 6 major hurricanes
Real Life: 10 named storms; 5 hurricanes; 2 major hurricanes

2005: Gray: 13 named storms; 7 hurricanes; 3 major hurricanes
NOAA: 12 to 15 named storms; 7 to 9 hurricanes; 3 to 5 major hurricanes
Real Life: 27 named storms; 15 hurricanes; 7 major hurricanes

2004: Gray: 14 named storms; 8 hurricanes; 3 major hurricanes
NOAA: 12 to 15 named storms; 6 to 8 hurricanes; 3 major hurricanes
Real Life: 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes

2003: Gray: 12 named storms; 8 hurricanes; 3 major hurricanes
NOAA: 11 to 15 named storms; 6 to 9 hurricanes; 2-4 major hurricanes
Real Life: 16 named storms; 7 hurricanes; 3 major hurricanes

2002: Gray: 12 named storms; 7 hurricanes; 3 major hurricanes
NOAA: 9 to 13 named storms; 6 to 8 hurricanes; 2 to 3 major hurricanes
Real Life: 12 named storms; 4 hurricanes; 2 major hurricanes

2001: Gray: 10 named storms; 6 hurricanes; 2 major hurricanes
NOAA: 9 to 12 named storms; 6 to 8 hurricanes; 2 to 4 major hurricanes
Real Life: 15 named storms; 9 hurricanes; 4 major hurricanes

Peter Dykstra Executive Producer CNN Science, Tech, & Weather

Filed under: hurricanes • meteorology • Severe weather • Weather


Share this on:
Franko   August 5th, 2008 11:06 pm ET

Lower stratosphere, (15 km), is cooling, while ocean little change.
Difference in temperatures is increasing, bigger or more hurricanes ?
Heat engine efficiency = 1-t2/t1 more randrops moved above your head ?


Nick   August 6th, 2008 8:38 am ET

The picture with this article is the 2004 season, not 2005.


pdykstra   August 6th, 2008 11:37 am ET

Nick is right, my mistake. This is the 2004 season.
Thanks for the sharp eyes
PD


Franko   August 7th, 2008 2:28 am ET

Ocean heat is the driver, moist warm air is lighter, rising to rain and cool off.
One great big complicated vortex, sucking in the cold air from above.

Good links and diagrams: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/quasigeostropic/comment.html?entrynum=5&tstamp=200807


Franko   August 7th, 2008 2:35 am ET

Ocean heat is the driver, moist warm air is lighter, rising to rain and cool off.
One great big complicated vortex, sucking in the cold air from above.

Ocean circulations are blocked by continents, causing Ice Ages, and hot spots.
Improve circulation to reduce hurricanes.


detectives privados formentera   December 12th, 2020 1:19 am ET

detectives privados coin

https://www.argadetectives.com/detectives-rubi-barcelona.html


Felton Rei   December 14th, 2020 4:01 am ET

World's most powerful link building and traffic genarator software. Click on my profile name for more details

https://bit.ly/36GcnL8


Kylie Keasler   December 20th, 2020 4:53 pm ET

Exceptional short article! I¡¯ll rss rectify these days wth excellent feedreader application!¡­

http://6dollarmillion.xyz


earn passive income in 2021   December 26th, 2020 2:00 pm ET

Imagine getting hundreds of people flooding your inbox on autopilot, 24/7. Cutting-edge funnel-based app that can generate 100 commissions of up to 900+ dollars DAILY. More details: Click in link in profile

https://bit.ly/2YfQFcC


venlafaxine no rx   January 9th, 2021 9:02 am ET

I enjoy you because of all of the effort on this blog. Debby delights in conducting internet research and it's easy to see why. A number of us hear all about the compelling form you convey both useful and interesting guidelines by means of the blog and boost contribution from other individuals about this area of interest and my child has been becoming educated a great deal. Enjoy the remaining portion of the new year. You're carrying out a fabulous job. https://venlorz.com/#


Chi Bakst   January 10th, 2021 11:38 pm ET

Hello my loved one! I wish to say that this article is awesome, great written and include almost all significant infos. I would like to look more posts like this .

https://www.electricpercolatorcoffeepot.com/10-top-coffee-bloggers/


Susannah Schossow   January 11th, 2021 9:18 pm ET

Oh i really envy the way you post topics, how i wish i could write like that..;.’,

http://yourmatrixcashmachine.com


Homer Vanderhoff   January 23rd, 2021 1:28 am ET

Social network traffic Facebook likes Twitter Followers Instagram Followers and much more

https://bit.ly/2Hnl7vE


Rebekah Kasee   January 28th, 2021 10:13 pm ET

Fantastic goods from you, man. I have understand your stuff previous to and you're just too wonderful. I actually like what you have acquired here, really like what you are saying and the way in which you say it. You make it entertaining and you still care for to keep it smart. I can not wait to read far more from you. This is actually a great site.

https://www.electricpercolatorcoffeepot.com/10-top-coffee-bloggers/


Earn-Money Auto-Pilot   January 30th, 2021 1:00 pm ET

Earn 500 a Day With Our Passive Income System Doing These 3 Steps – Step 1: Get our ready made niche websites, Step 2: Setup your Paypal account. Step 3: Run our Unlimited Traffic System from our Free 850 sources of traffic (Approximately 35000 views a day guaranteed). Then in few hours you will start receiving payments without do nothing! More info: https://warriorplus.com/o2/a/gp8vk/0

https://bitly.com/2qChAkX


Passive-Income 2021   January 30th, 2021 9:22 pm ET

Earn 500 a Day With Our Passive Income System Doing These 3 Steps: Step 1: Get our ready made niche websites, Step 2: Setup your Paypal account. Step 3: Run our Unlimited Traffic System from our Free 850 sources of traffic and start earning your income in same day. More info: https://warriorplus.com/o2/a/gp8vk/0

https://bitly.com/2qChAkX


Earn-Money Auto-Pilot   February 1st, 2021 11:20 am ET

Get Our Passive Income System – Step 1: Get our ready made niche websites, Step 2: Setup your Paypal account. Step 3: Run our Unlimited Traffic System from 850 sources of traffic (Approximately 35000 views a day guaranteed). Then just wait and earn your income 100 on autopilot. More info: https://www.k3reviews.com/2020/08/16/monster-mode-700k/

https://bitly.com/2EgbfPr


Claud Zani   February 5th, 2021 8:10 pm ET

Earn $300/Day With Our Passive Income System – Best Autopilot income system 2021

https://warriorplus.com/o2/a/mrzrq/0


Carlee Zinsmeister   February 6th, 2021 5:00 am ET

Earn 10000 a Month With Our Passive Income System – Best Autopilot income system 2021

https://warriorplus.com/o2/a/vgtwc/0


Nikole   February 9th, 2021 9:29 pm ET

Yes! Finally something about website.


runtz cartridge   February 15th, 2021 6:12 pm ET

774110 101144This internet internet page is genuinely a walk-through for all of the information you wanted about this and didnt know who to ask. Glimpse here, and youll surely discover it. 147385


뉴토끼   February 16th, 2021 3:22 pm ET

806562 147119fantastic issues altogether, you just gained a emblem new reader. 540316


Best-Social-Media-Services and-Traffic-2021   February 16th, 2021 9:46 pm ET

1500 USA Visitors Daily For 30 Days From Niche Targeted Organic Traffic From Google: https://www.seoclerk.com/Traffic/840816/1500-USA-Visitors-Daily-For-30-Days-From-Niche-Targeted-Organic-Traffic-From-Google

https://www.seoclerk.com/Traffic/833336/I-will-drive-20000-google-organic-visitors-using-targeted-keywords


ClarkPring   March 1st, 2021 7:29 pm ET

5bvhl vt5ys 8jhu


Harland Laurens   March 4th, 2021 10:11 am ET

https://www.electricpercolatorcoffeepot.com/10-top-coffee-bloggers/


erotic massage london   March 21st, 2021 8:54 pm ET

Very good post.Really looking forward to read more. Want more.

https://www.secrettantric.com/


vardenafil levitra   April 4th, 2021 9:26 pm ET

vardenafil hcl 20mg tab https://vegavardenafil.com/ vardenafil cvs


tadalis sx   April 6th, 2021 3:37 pm ET

tadalafil 40 https://elitadalafill.com/ tadalafil online


canadian pharmacy cheap sildenafil   April 6th, 2021 4:16 pm ET

buy sildenafil with visa https://eunicesildenafilcitrate.com/ sildenafil 110 mg capsule


how do i use alprostadil urethral suppository   April 6th, 2021 8:50 pm ET

buy topical alprostadil gel https://alprostadildrugs.com/ alprostadil mexico


where can i buy zithromax online   April 12th, 2021 9:04 pm ET

azithromax https://zithromaxes.com/ how to take zithromax


buying canadian cialis   April 13th, 2021 6:21 am ET

cialis at canadian pharmacy https://canadacialisstore.com/ canadian pharmacy cialis without prescription


Leave Your Comment


 

CNN welcomes a lively and courteous discussion as long as you follow the Rules of Conduct set forth in our Terms of Service. Comments are not pre-screened before they post. You agree that anything you post may be used, along with your name and profile picture, in accordance with our Privacy Policy and the license you have granted pursuant to our Terms of Service.


subscribe RSS Icon
About this blog

Are you a gadgethead? Do you spend hours a day online? Or are you just curious about how technology impacts your life? In this digital age, it's increasingly important to be fluent, or at least familiar, with the big tech trends. From gadgets to Google, smartphones to social media, this blog will help keep you informed.

subscribe RSS Icon
twitter
Powered by WordPress.com VIP