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November 3, 2008

The political impact of Election Day weather

Posted: 11:02 AM ET

It seems rain DOES make a difference when deciding an election.  As matter of fact it might have cost Al Gore the White House in 2000.  

Election Day weather across the U.S. looks mostly dry - a good sign for Democrats?

According to Florida State University researcher Brad Gomez (along with Thomas G. Hansford and George A. Krause), just an inch of rain can make a big difference in a tight race.  (Gomes, who recently joined the faculty at FSU, did his research while at the University of Georgia). 

The researchers studied the past 14 presidential elections using simulated weather conditions for those dates based on data from more than 22,000 weather reporting stations. They found that while 1 inch of rain drops overall voter turnout by less than 1 percent, the Democratic turnout drops by 2.5 percent.  There was significant rain in the Florida panhandle during the controversial 2000 election when George W. Bush beat Gore by just hundreds of votes in Florida to win the presidency.  If it hadn’t rained, enough additional Democrats might have voted in Florida to give Gore the White House.

Other interesting findings in the study show that younger voters are less likely to vote in bad weather while older voters are more inclined to vote rain or shine.  (Once again we need to follow the lead of our elders and vote - regardless of the weather!!!)

So where might weather play a role during Tuesday's voting?  The weather map looks pretty simple: The battleground state of North Carolina, where both the presidential race and a U.S. Senate race are competitive, will see some rain along the coast.  The rest of the eastern half of the country should be dry. Areas west of the continental divide will see some valley rain and mountain snow.

Does that mostly dry forecast bode well for Barack Obama and the Democrats this time? We'll soon find out.
 
–Rob Marciano, CNN Meteorologist

Filed under: Weather


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Franko   November 4th, 2008 3:39 am ET

Self made Corporate Puppets
One colorful, other just a smarter Bush

Corporations win either way.
Lobbyists, and corporate donations, pull the puppet's strings.


Larian LeQuella   November 4th, 2008 9:45 am ET

*YAWN* I suppose this is "science" but really rather boring... I mean, come on, talking about the weather? 😛

How about the "unexplained" particle the Tevatron folks found? Now that's exciting science, even if we don't know what it is.


Karen Sargsyan +   November 4th, 2008 2:14 pm ET

Amerika it's a good country


S Callahan   November 5th, 2008 12:50 pm ET

I toast my great Creator that all men (women included here) are born with free will to their destiny! God is good!
I think the Science community should be overjoyed with Presidental elect Senator Obama....the winds of righteousness was at the backs of man and have propelled this Nation, USA, and the world forward.
It's my deepest belief you will have support in exploring our space horizens, developing new technologies along the way to help our fellow man. A big Thank You to all those Scientists that bravely sent their letter out in support. A hopeful day for new technology to havert enerty to enable us to be self sufficent, as well as helping our fellow man throughout the world!
This is a great day in the life of earth!


Franko   November 6th, 2008 12:08 am ET

"are born with free will to their destiny!"
Obama puppet, free to push on his corporate strings ?

"God is good!"
Obama will have the gift to print money, miracle over and over, again


Grace Brown   May 24th, 2010 3:46 am ET

I always like Sunny weather and disliked gloomy rainy weather.-~*


Chloe Anderson   August 2nd, 2010 12:20 pm ET

the weather these days is hotter than the previous decades, i guess it is the effect of global warming,*.


Aidan Webb   September 29th, 2010 3:12 pm ET

i just wish that there is always sunny weather because i love the sun:.`


Melatonin Dosage    October 14th, 2010 5:45 am ET

the weather these days are not very sunny, i wish that it is sunny everyday*~-


Metal Roofing :   October 25th, 2010 2:20 pm ET

the weather will always be cold now because the winter months are coming'~"


Fletcher Cribbs   March 7th, 2011 2:23 pm ET

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This is nice. Actually i found a handy trick. previously i was using Google Calculator by tyipng in 21km = miles as i was searching how may miles it is for a half marathon. Then i tried to look for a weather forecast. i searched using keywords weather forecast taguig which is my city then bam. Amazing. no need to click on websites, the search results show the city's weather. BTW google staffs, i would like to say that you are all amazing and if given a chance, i would love to work with you guys,


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